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2025 Senate Race: Erwin Tulfo leads senatorial survey, opposition bets absent in 'Magic 12'

Hurt Allauigan

September 4, 2023



A recent survey conducted in the third quarter of 2023 has yet again bared another Tulfo surname, alongside other familiar political names as possible frontrunners in the upcoming senatorial elections.


Topping the list was Erwin Tulfo (50%) who, according to Oculum Research and Analytics, benefitted from the popularity of his short tenure as Social Welfare secretary.


Oculum also noted in its press event that Tulfo enjoyed a high level of public trust due to his appealing political views and strong populist advocacies like expanding the 4P's.


"Incidentally, the respondents in the Oculum third-quarter survey showed a very strong support for the 4Ps program,” Dr. Dennis Coronacion, Oculum's Chief Political Analyst said.


“Him topping the senatorial survey may also signify the public recognition of the Tulfo family name as a political brand,” he added.


Several media and political personalities and mainstays like Vicente "Tito" Sotto III (48%) and former president Rodrigo Duterte (39%) completed the top 3 slots.


Manny Mogato said in the press event that Sotto and Duterte both enjoyed being "fresh on the minds of the masses".


Sotto was entangled in the recent Eat Bulaga mess while Duterte remains a controversial figure right after his presidency last year.


Pia Cayetano remained as the sole female candidate to vye for a senate seat sitting on top 4.


Then followed by Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa (5th, 32%), former senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (6th, 31%), Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto (7th, 28%), and TV host Willie Revillame (8th, 27%).


Sitting tied for the ninth to eleventh spots were social media doctor Willie Ong, actor Lito Lapid, and capitalist Many Villar with a share of 26%.


Last in the race was boxer and former senator Manny Pacquiao with 24%.


Lack of opposition bets

Meanwhile, the absence of opposition bets was glaring in the survey.


Rappler's Iya Gozum asked the Oculum panel on the lack of known opposition personalities like former Vice President Leni Robredo, lawyer-activist Chel Diokno and agri-reformist and former senator Kiko Pangilinan.


Coronacion noted that it was still due to the effect of the previous elections and the campaigns that branded the opposition as the "bane of the government".


"The masses still think that these opposition were all "against the government," Mogato said.


Chief Statistician Dr. Joseph Mercado emphasized the "dynamic nature" of Philippine politics.


“Factors such as name recognition, media exposure, and political history play a significant role in shaping the popularity of these figures. The analysis underscores the dynamic nature of political preferences and provides valuable insights into the current landscape of political figures' popularity in the Philippines,” he said.


Filipinos satisfied with the government

In the same quarter report, Oculum presented that the current Marcos-Duterte leadership enjoyed a very high satisfaction rate.


President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had a satisfaction rate of 74% while his vice president, Sara Duterte ride on a 79% satisfaction rating.


However, it is important to note that the survey does not reflect the series of controversies that surrounded both of them.


Marcos Jr. is yet to act on the continuous rise of market prices of commodities and his seemingly ineffective tenure as the Agriculture secretary that only made rounds in the news recently.


Duterte on the other hand, is yet to justify her need for confidential funds of her offices.


This shows the public has yet to digest the recent events surrounding these two figures as noted by the Oculum panel.


The results of Oculum's third-quarter opinion poll were based on responses from 1,200 participants aged 18 and above. They were randomly chosen utilizing a multistage probability sampling method.

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